20 July 2004

ICM & THE TORIES

After Butler, Labour up 1 point, Tories down 1 point - both within margin for error: now, Labour 35, CP 30. Despite Blair's falling trust ratings, the appalling press coverage, and their paralysis in dealing effectively with their case for the Iraq war, their position in the polls appears essentially unchanged. If Brown were leader, the Labour lead would be 41-30. The CP needs roughly a ten point lead in the polls to get a majority of one MP.

For years, many on the Right have thought that "people will soon see through Blair" and that if his approval ratings shrink, then there will be a natural shift in the polls - "we are the natural party of government". From episode to episode, whether Formula One, Mittal, Hutton, or Butler, the same pattern repeats itself. The Right will not face up to the reality of its position and justifies this by arguing that Blair’s collapse is just round the corner. Consequently, the hard thinking done in opposition by Blair, Brown, Mandelson, and Campbell about strategy and structure has not happened and, despite frenetic activity, the months and years have passed without a Tory revival.

Yesterday, Blair showed his dangerous skill yet again with the blitz on crime, accurately judging that a range of connected issues from street crime to low level disorder and violence in schools has combined in public minds into a major political issue. The Tories have got nowhere on crime.

Now, the latest hope is that "trust" - or Blair’s lack of it - will save the CP. This is unlikely. After Monica, "trust" in Clinton collapsed. His approval ratings did not - in fact, they strengthened as impeachment, and evidence of his lies, proceeded. People now expect politicians to lie; they are far more concerned about competence and whether the leader "is in touch with issues that affect people like me" than they are about trust. Blair’s principal problem is not "trust" but the public’s feeling that he has not delivered on public services and is out of touch on things like crime and asylum. Clinton assured people that he was "fighting for them every day". We can be sure that those in Downing Street know all about the lessons of Clinton and will be saying to themselves: "people may think we lied over Iraq, they may think we lie in general, but if they think we are more in touch with their priorities than Howard and more competent in delivering them, then we will win big again - the Tories do not yet have an answer to us".

All those Tories who are hoping for a magic bullet in today’s debate - a Scooby Doo ending in which Blair’s mask is ripped off and he is "revealed" - are likely to be disappointed this evening as they have been so often in the past. Until the Tories are seen as having an attractive alternative message and more competent people than Blair and Brown, there is no reason to think that the public will swing back to them.

The Tories approach to Iraq now should be: (a) emphasise the incompetence of Blair in not knowing what the 45 minute claim referred to, and multiple other issues; (b) emphasise his lack of credibility given the obvious exaggerations made in the dossier; (c) place this in the context of - the Prime Minister has undermined public confidence in an operation that was necessary, as the evidence from the Iraq Survey Group and the evidence of Saddam’s connections with terrorist groups make clear; given the inevitability of the need to make similar future judgements about pre-emptive action, and the inevitable terrorist attacks that await us, he has damaged the capacity of this country to explain forcefully to itself and Europe why a strong alliance with America and serious action against these problems is so important; we may well face a nuclear armed Iran shortly - a country that has undisputed links to international terrorist organizations - and how we deal with problems like this has been seriously damaged by the PM’s conduct over Iraq.

Not only is this the most responsible approach in terms of the national interest; it is also, however brutal this sounds, far better medium-term politics for the Tories to position themselves appropriately in the context of inevitable future terrorist attacks in Britain than it is to score points from unthinking allies in the right wing media by appearing to dodge support for Iraq.

It is encouraging that many of the key people now running the CP realise this.