24 April 2004

FIRST POLL ON CONSTITUTION SINCE BLAIR U-TURN: OVERWHELMING PUBLIC REJECTION OF BLAIR POSITION BY 68 - 21

The New Frontiers Foundation has conducted the first poll on the Constitution since Blair’s decision to call a referendum. It was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday, and the sample is 1,000 representative voters.

ICM asked: I would like to read out two alternative points of view about the proposed new Constitution for the EU. Which one do you agree with most...

(b) "Things should stay as they are. Britain should be in Europe but the new EU Constitution will give too much power to the EU over things like jobs, living standards, civil rights, and asylum policy. Britain should say ‘yes’ to Europe and ‘no’ to the Constitution."

The public responded 68 - 21 for (b). 25 - 35 year-olds are the most hostile to the Constitution, supporting (b) by 74 - 20. Even middle-class ABs, the bedrock of the pro-euro campaign support (b) by 64 - 24. There is little regional fluctuation - Scotland is marginally the most sceptical (71 - 18).

Blair only has one strategy. Previous polls show that the public now regards the EU as "a failure" that should have fewer powers. They will not support the new Constitution on its "merits". Therefore, Blair must persuade people that the only alternative to accepting the Constitution is leaving the EU. This poll shows that this strategy is not regarded as credible so long as the Conservative Party and ‘no’ campaign position their message as "Europe yes, Constitution no." The fact that the Government has repeatedly said on the record that the EU can work without the Constitution will make it impossible for Blair to stick to his intended message, which already appears to be crumbling.

Blair is clinging to the mantra he learned in the mid-1980s from Mandelson "the EU is more successful than us, it is modern, we are modern." He still seems unaware that while he benefits from reforms that liberalised Britain’s economy, the EU has rejected liberalisation and now suffers a combination of demographic decline, mass unemployment, low growth, and an increasing gap between European and American technological capacity. Far from being a "modern success story", the EU is preventing its members adapting to the challenges of the 21st Century.

If Britain rejects the Constitution, it opens up the possibility of sparking the debate Europe should be having now: why is it failing and how should it reform so it can adapt to new challenges? Britain would exert far greater influence on Europe than it does now, acting as an example to be followed rather than a surly neighbour to be managed.

The public increasingly agrees with this.

An ICM poll (24 - 25 March) of 1,000 people asked: "Which of the following do you more agree with?"

(a)The threat of international terrorism makes it more important that we join the euro and EU constitution.

(b) The threat of international terrorism makes it more important that we keep the pound and keep control of our own affairs.

The result was 64 - 20 for (b). This is even more hostile to Blair’s European policy than after 9/11, when the ‘no’ campaign asked this question.

In December 2003, the public also supported by 67 - 23 the proposition: "the EU is failing. Britain will be more prosperous and secure if we keep the pound and take back powers from the EU."

Dominic Cummings, Director, said:

"The public knows the EU isn’t working and that it needs real reform instead of more powers. Britain would be more influential if it confronted the EU with its failures and suggested a programme of reform instead of just accepting every idea from the same people who have got Europe into this mess. The EU should be facing the real challenges of the 21st Century, not adopting a Constitution that looks like it was written in the 1970s."