15 June 2004

GOVERNMENT PREPARES RED LINE STRATEGY

The front page of the FT refers to comments by British officials ahead of the Summit, suggesting that the Government is following the same strategy it did ahead of the Nice Summit in 2000. Ahead of Nice the Government made a great deal of its "red lines", focusing all media attention on them, and then claimed a victory afterwards when they were "successfully defended". According to the FT: "British officials said last night that they were still unsure whether the new treaty would be approved amid outstanding differences over voting weights in the council of ministers. The officials said they were still looking for changes in the charter of human rights that would safeguard UK labour laws." The Sun also reports that, "Tony Blair is ready to torpedo this week’s EU superstate summit after his thrashing by angry voters. The shell-shocked PM will refuse to sign the unpopular EU Constitution on Friday without major changes, aides claimed. Mr Blair will demand action on tax, welfare and the draconian Charter of Fundamental Rights." A No 10 spokesman is quoted in the paper saying, "I am not preparing you for failure, but I am not preparing you for success either." The most likely outcome to the negotiations ahead of and during the Summit seems to be that the Government will follow a similar strategy to the one it followed ahead of the Nice IGC in December 2000 - it will make a great deal of its red lines, imply that they are at risk, and then claim victory for Britain and argue that this shows what being "at the heart of Europe" can achieve. The Government can then put off the referendum issue for a while, hoping that another country votes against it making a British referendum unnecessary. But the question remains: would the Government ever actually hold a referendum if the Tories close the gap at the next election, and if it remains at least thirty points behind on the Constitution?

The FT also reports that Germany and the Netherlands "look set for a blistering argument" at the Summit "after foreign ministers yesterday failed to resolve differences over what kind of budget and deficit rules to include in the new constitution." Germany does not want the European Commission to be able to propose measures that an individual government must take on breaching the 3 per cent Stability Pact limit. The Netherlands does not want the Commission’s powers weakened.